Bullish Sentiment Hits 55.5% As Fed Turns Hawkish Into September

Investor optimism ticked up slightly, right as the calendar turns to September. Per our latest Bear & Bull survey, 55.5% of readers called themselves bullish heading into the month — historically the stock market’s least forgiving stretch. That confidence held even as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh turned hawkish at Jackson Hole, sending September rate-hike odds surging from 35% to 60%.

• The S&P 500 rose in seven of the past 12 months, with the index climbing 2.6% in August while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose ~2.4% during the same period.
• However, gains were concentrated, as NvidiaNVDA
  and MicronMU
  drove a third of 2026’s S&P 500 earnings growth — with the top 10 stocks responsible for two-thirds.

Forward-looking: Even so, Big Tech isn’t the only one cashing in. Overall S&P 500 per-share earnings jumped 53% in Q2, fueled by AI and federal spending, tariff refunds, and resilient consumer demand. TargetTGT

, Best BuyBBY

, and Dollar GeneralDG

all posted stronger sales, and more companies raised full-year guidance than cut it. Apollo’s chief economist says the good times can continue “as long as the AI boom continues,” but warns that if AI spending fails to justify itself, “we will be having a different conversation.”