Why the MSCI Emerging Markets Index Isn't as Diversified as It Looks

The pitch for emerging markets has always been the same: diversify away from US stocks. But the most popular emerging markets funds are now deeply tangled in the same AI trade driving US markets higher.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix now make up over 30% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Their combined market value is roughly $4.4T. Information technology as a whole accounts for half the index's total allocation. China, South Korea, and Taiwan represent ~70% of the index's exposure.
The MSCI EM index is up 22% this year, double the S&P 500's gain. But that outperformance is almost entirely explained by the same AI chip demand story powering the US market.
South Korea's market has surged, then cracked hard. The Kospi has slid more than 25% from its June record, with trading halts triggered repeatedly by circuit breakers.
Retail investors are driving up to 60% of the market's moves, an uncomfortably high level according to Charles De Boissezon at Societe Generale. Leveraged ETFs are amplifying every swing.
SK Hynix shares fell by the most on record in Seoul recently, dragging the broader MSCI EM index down as much as 2.5% in a single session.
A coming wave of Chinese chip IPOs adds another risk. ChangXin Memory Technologies is taking orders for what's expected to be a $4B+ offering on Shanghai's exchange, which could undermine the memory-shortage narrative that has driven South Korean stocks higher.
Professional fund managers have started quietly stepping back.
Invesco's William Lam cut Samsung Electronics in one of his Asian equity funds by more than 60% since the start of the year, redeploying into Korean companies outside the tech sector.
JPMorgan Asset Management is looking at India and China for diversification. Brandes Investment Partners favors NetEase, China's second-largest gaming company, as a top pick.
BlackRock is balancing tech exposure with investments in energy, materials, power infrastructure, and utilities. These industries are positioned to benefit from AI build-out without carrying the same valuation risk as the chip stocks themselves.
The 30% of the MSCI EM index outside Taiwan, South Korea, and China is where fund managers say the original diversification story still lives. Brazil, India, and parts of Africa are home to growing working populations driving consumption and income growth.
Brazilian valuations sit near historic lows even as its banks and telecoms generate stable earnings and high dividend yields.
"This type of concentration is never easy for a portfolio manager, it's always difficult."
Warren Chiang, GMO
While equity investors debate tech concentration, the EM bond market has been delivering real diversification.
Bloomberg's index for EM local-currency sovereign debt has returned 3.7% since the end of March. A comparable Treasuries gauge posted a slight loss over the same period.
Average inflation in emerging markets slowed to 2.77% in the second quarter, yet the EM debt index still carries an average 6.23% yield.
That meaningful real yield cushion is drawing capital from investors looking to reduce US asset overweights.
Cooler-than-expected US CPI data for June showed consumer prices declining for the first time in six years. That gave EM currencies a boost by taking imminent Fed rate hikes off the table. Brazil's real, the South African rand, and the Mexican peso all advanced against the dollar on the news.
For investors who bought an EM index fund thinking they were hedging US tech risk, the honest answer is that they probably aren't. The diversification is still available in emerging markets, just not in the index anymore.