Since then-President Richard Nixon declared a “War on Drugs” in 1971, the Republican party has held a generational stance on the issue. Over the 50 years since Nixon fired the first shot, the vast majority of drug arrests have been for one type of drug — marijuana. As a result, it has become a centerpiece in the national culture war, with both Democrats and Republicans pushing for more relaxed federal legislation. But even for a New York Republican, Donald Trump might not be what the cannabis industry needs.

Hard canna-biz: In 2012, Colorado and Washington became the first two US states to legalize recreational marijuana use. Twelve years later, 22 other states have followed suit. But despite nearly half of the US now allowing the Devil’s Lettuce — and permitting businesses to grow and sell it — very little has changed at the federal level. Outside of the DEA’s proposed review of marijuana restrictions, weed-friendly Democrats didn’t achieve much on marijuana policy — and now that they’re handing control back to Republicans, the industry is bound for more uncertainty.

• Democrats were unable to decriminalize marijuana at the federal level or pass the SAFER Banking Act, which would have allowed marijuana businesses more reliable banking and payment processing.
• With Republicans taking over, there’s little hope for progress on marijuana policy, especially after strongholds like Florida, North Dakota, and South Dakota voted against recreational measures.

Smoked Out

Due to opposition from prominent conservative lawmakers and Boomers, Maryjane may have maxed out in the US. If so, that’s bad news for notoriously volatile weed businesses on Wall Street, which have lost investors who once bet on the optimistic future of weed legalization.

• The Amplify Alternative Harvest ETFMJ
  has ridden the highs and lows since launching in 2015, rising as much as 56% from its listing price by 2018 before collapsing in 2019 and 2021 — it’s now down 90% since its debut.
• A Republican sweep of the Presidency and Congress hasn’t helped matters forMJ
  or its US-listed competitor, the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETFMSOS
  , which has fallen over 38% since Election Day.

The blunt reality: According to the WSJ, the “incoming administration marks the sixth consecutive presidential term under which the cannabis industry will be forced to operate in limbo.” As a result, domestic marijuana growers will still face banking issues and won’t have a path to list on Wall Street. But for now, they’ll likely continue operating as usual — and that’s about all they can hope for.