In a time when seeing is believing, Americans show a clear disconnect between economic data and their perceptions. According to a new poll by The Guardian, 56% of Americans think the US is in a recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. However, they’re mistaken: GDP is still growing, unemployment is near 50-year lows, and US business activity is expanding rapidly. This highlights the outsized impact of higher inflation and living costs on Americans.

• 72% of Americans believe inflation is increasing, while 55% think the economy is shrinking.
• 49% think unemployment is at a 50-year high, and the S&P 500 is down year-to-date — almost the opposite of the actual situation.

Future forecast: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of a possible severe downturn in the US economy. He notes signs of stagflation, with stalled growth, rising inflation, and persistent unemployment. Dimon points out that consumer prices have jumped 22% in the past five years, impacting corporate profits and widening economic gaps. Looking ahead, he anticipates continued inflationary pressures and potential interest rate hikes, cautioning, “I think inflation is stickier than people think,” indicating prolonged economic challenges.