Walmart Posts Banner Holiday Showing To Cap Off 2024, Errs On Side Of Caution For 2025
Few had a better 2024 than the world’s largest retailer, Walmart, which saw its stock rise 72% for its best year since 1998. That boom was on the backs of double-digit growth in its e-commerce sales and new global advertising business, while single-digit growth in its namesake stores helped move the needle. But few firms can drive repeat returns quite like this — and they’re gainfully aware of that.
No repeat rally: In the fourth quarter, Walmart posted a banner holiday showing, with revenues up 4.1% year-over-year to $180.6B. In recent weeks, headlines have pinned this number down, as close e-commerce competitor Amazon was seen surpassing Walmart to become the S&P 500’s largest revenue-generating firm. However, the wholesale giant’s full-year haul — $681B — remained the best annual performance of any publicly traded firm in the US. And unlike some firms bringing in Big Tech money, the company prioritized returning billions to investors rather than sinking money into still-unprofitable AI ventures.
- In FY 2025, Walmart raked in a record $29.3B in operating income — it spent 37.9% ($11.1B) of this on dividends and share buybacks to investors during the period.
- The corporation also authorized a 13% increase in its annual dividend for the coming fiscal year, which will bring the dividend to $0.94 per share (0.9%).
2025, Beware
However, not everything was sunshine and daisies for the big-box retailer. It warned of pressures coming this year, its FY 2026, issuing a cloudier outlook than investors were hoping for — especially after the year it just had.
- Walmart put forward another conservative outlook — just as it did in FY 2024 and 2025 — with net sales expected to rise 3% to 4%, while analysts were looking for 4%.
- The company said that although business remains strong and consumers are “resilient,” there are “still uncertainties related to consumer behavior and global economic and geopolitical conditions.”
Reading between the lines: Walmart’s guidance does not include expectations about planned tariffs, which CFO John Rainey feels “really good” about its ability to navigate. However, they qualify — they will have an impact on the organization. And if the economy continues to show signs of trouble, it will likely crop up in reduced spending, especially from lower-income shoppers.
