Wall Street’s biggest players are riding a wave of political volatility. The six largest US banks — JPMorgan ChaseJPM

, Bank of AmericaBAC

, CitigroupC

, Wells FargoWFC

, Goldman SachsGS

, and Morgan StanleyMS

— are projected to report a combined $31B in Q4 2024 profits, up 16% year-over-year. The surge comes after a blockbuster quarter for Wall Street, which saw Donald Trump’s election victory spur optimism about dealmaking, breathing new life into investment banking revenues.

• Investment banking fees for the Big Six are expected to climb ~30% to $8.4B, though still sitting 50% below the quarterly peak seen in 2021.
• Trading revenues are expected to reach $24.5B, the highest fourth-quarter figure in over five years, driven largely by equities teams capitalizing on election-related market movements.

Banking on a high: While bank stocks have surged — with the KBW Banks Index up 33% over the past year — some analysts warn of potential headwinds. With interest rates still high, Wells Fargo expects to see an 8% decline in lending income compared to last year. And while other parts of the banks are working, some are at odds with rich valuations. Whalen Global Advisors’ Christopher Whalen cautions that “the market values still represent exuberance,” suggesting that today’s high valuations might not last.