Value Stocks Climbed 3,471% Since 2000 as Growth Premiums Got Riskier

Sorry, tech bros — the tortoise has been lapping the hare. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts led by Christopher Cain found that value stocks paired with rising earnings delivered a 3,471% return since 2000, more than 8x the S&P 500. Remove the earnings filter, and the gain drops to 2,170%, showing how much of the edge came from stronger fundamentals.

• A strategy targeting stocks with the sharpest three-month earnings upgrades rose 31% in the year through May 18 and is already up 8.5% in 2026.
• The Russell 1000 Value Index has gained 9.9% since early January, more than double the Russell 1000 Growth Index’s 4% return.

The market wants receipts: With Warren Buffett’s market-cap-to-GDP gauge sitting at 227%, well above the “playing with fire” level he warned about back in 2001, investors are paying a steep premium for growth. As Bloomberg Intelligence’s Christopher Cain noted, when valuations are this stretched, strategies backed by improving fundamentals tend to matter more. The higher the expectations, the smaller the margin for error.