Trump Wants $50 Oil, But US Jobs Hang In The Balance
Cheaper gas sounds great until oil workers lose their jobs. To fight inflation, Trump’s team — particularly adviser Peter Navarro — is pushing for $50 oil barrels (vs. last week’s $68) while simultaneously demanding increased output by 2028. However, industry insiders warn, “The two objectives are incompatible,” citing profitability concerns as the sector’s index remains largely flat year-to-date.
- With an estimated $45 US break-even price (S&P Global), $50 barrels would impact Oklahoma, Rockies, Bakken, and South Texas’ ability to operate profitably — “We will see a slowdown in [production] activity,” says a Bakken commissioner.
- Energy Secretary Wright proposes loosening regulations and infrastructure barriers to facilitate lower prices — although a Morgan Stanley analyst notes that Trump’s aluminum and steel tariffs are driving up production costs for the same oil companies.
Price vs. production: “I really don’t think they have thought through the [price] ramifications,” says an industry veteran. Beyond US energy, Rystad Energy’s chief economist believes that OPEC+ leaders would fiercely resist the price point — Saudi Arabia requires ~$100 barrels to balance its budget, while Russia’s battered economy desperately needs petroleum revenue. Otherwise, reduced US oil output will put “Saudi Arabia into greater control … so they are able to increase market share significantly” — potentially drilling a hole in Trump’s plan.
