Halloween’s frights have nothing on the horrors of college tuition, but those days of dread seem to be dwindling. Despite common beliefs about soaring education costs, average college tuition and fees have increased more slowly than inflation. According to the College Board’s report, this trend is driven by institutions grappling with declining enrollment and growing skepticism about the value of a degree.

• From 2012-13 to the 2024-25 academic year, the average inflation-adjusted net tuition for first-time, full-time, in-state students at public four-year institutions fell from $4.34K to $2.48K.
• Since 2019, the real cost of college has declined, with public two-year colleges seeing only a 2.5% tuition increase compared to the 3.1% inflation rate in 2024.

The aid avalanche: State aid has played the biggest role in keeping college tuition manageable, thanks to tuition freezes and robust state budgets that have boosted funding for higher education. Additionally, the shift toward non-repayable grants over loans has led to total annual student borrowing steadily declining for 13 consecutive years, dropping from an inflation-adjusted peak of $159.2B in 2010 to $99B in 2023-24. However, with state budgets projected to shrink by over 6% in 2025 and federal COVID funds running out, Postsecondary Analytics LLC’s Nate Johnson warned, “The forecast for next year isn’t as rosy … there will be some pressure on higher education budgets that might result in tuition going up.”