MarketsJun 15, 2026
The Emerging Iran Peace Deal Is Triggering a Major Sector Rotation
Market Shifts
Rhea Lobo
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The Strait of Hormuz carries ~20% of the world's oil and natural gas through a narrow channel between Iran and Oman. Iran's closure of that waterway in early March triggered the largest oil supply shock in history. This week, the US and Iran agreed to reopen the strait, and the sector rotation that follows is already moving fast.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould noted that oil, defense, and telecom stocks were sold off, while higher-risk and more economically sensitive parts of the market drew buyers.
Travel-related stocks extended their rally, with Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian Cruise Line advancing alongside airline names.
The US Global JETS ETF has climbed ~24% since early April. Boeing, Delta Air Lines, and GE Aerospace benefited from improving sentiment around commercial aviation and airline profitability.
Micron Technology, Super Micro Computer, Western Digital, and Advanced Micro Devices were among the market's biggest winners as traders shifted capital toward high-beta technology names and away from traditional safe-haven sectors.
Ward said the rotation and broadening that stalled on Feb. 27 is now unwinding, according to JPMorgan Asset Management's Karen Ward.
The sectors that benefited most from elevated oil prices are now absorbing the sharpest losses.
Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 were down sharply per Barron's. Exxon Mobil and other majors were also among the S&P 500's worst performers on the day.
Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and L3Harris Technologies all opened lower. The five largest defense primes entered Monday already down an average of 20% since the war began. That followed an average gain of 77% in the 12 months before conflict broke out.
Capital Alpha Partners analyst Byron Callan argued the peace deal might eventually boost the sector, because Iranian rearmament would require Israel, Gulf states, and the US to spend more on missile defense in response.
Ward sees oil falling to $70 a barrel in the coming weeks as the deal unlocks frozen Iranian assets and adds supply. She also pointed to weakening OPEC cohesion and Gulf states seeking to monetize reserves at current prices as additional supply drivers.
The agreement isn't without sharp edges. Iranian state media indicated Hormuz would be toll-free for only 60 days, after which Iran and Oman would administer the strait.
This contradicts Vice President JD Vance's statement that the US expects it to remain toll-free long-term. Nuclear negotiations are also deferred into a 60-day window, per The Wall Street Journal.
Shipping industry group Bimco warned that mines laid in the strait remain a significant safety risk. Bimco added that statements from both sides lack sufficient detail on timing and safe transit routes.
"Tough conversations will have to occur in the 60-day window to ensure the peace is sustainable," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.
