Why Wall Street Is Starting to Worry About Treasury Yields Hitting 6%

Treasury yields are climbing into territory that could put stocks under real pressure. The 30-year yield hit its highest since 2007, and BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky warns a rapid move toward 6% could catch investors off guard. Its breakout from a three-year range suggests the bond selloff may have further to run.

• The only similar surge from the 4% range to 6% came in 1999, with the S&P 500 entering a correction four months later before a years-long bear market.
• US national debt could top $40T by the end of August and reach $50T by 2029, with annual debt-servicing costs approaching $1.5T.

Yield squeeze: The US-Iran stalemate has sent oil prices higher, reviving inflation fears and pushing yields across Germany, France, Japan, and the UK to multi-decade highs. At the same time, heavy AI infrastructure borrowing is competing with government debt for global capital. In the US, treasury yields are reaching levels not seen in decades, adding pressure to an already strained bond market.