Forget cardboard boxes and cocoa — shoplifting has become the real recession indicator. Despite a general decline in crime rates, the Council on Criminal Justice has reported a 24% increase in shoplifting incidents during the first half of 2024. According to Matt Schulz from LendingTree, “Lots of people are struggling in the face of still-rising prices, and they’re going to somewhat desperate measures to help them get by.”

• Since 2022, financial insecurity among Americans has amplified by 6.7%, affecting 36.4% of households that struggle to afford essentials like food, housing, and healthcare.
• Of those facing economic hardship, 34% of shoplifters admitted to stealing due to high prices — while 30% did so to meet basic needs and 27% to save money.

Shop small, shoplift big: Shoplifters are increasingly targeting chain stores over small businesses. As a result, US retailers like CVS and Target are enhancing security by locking up everyday items, while stores such as TJ Maxx are equipping staff with body cameras. This is frustrating customers, leading to a drop in store sales, and pushing more people towards online shopping. Kevin Thompson from Capital Group warned Newsweek, “If this trend continues, prices will likely go much higher as retailers adjust pricing to offset losses.”