It starts with a whisper and grows into a roar. In prediction markets like PredictIt and Polymarket, those who whispered about Biden’s exit from the presidential race first have reaped the rewards. For months, bettors placed long-shot bets on Biden stepping down — a move that proved accurate and underscored the impact of these betting platforms.

• Bettors were more confident about Biden’s departure than many Washington insiders — with the odds of his exit exceeding 20% on PredictIt and Polymarket in the weeks leading up to the first presidential debate.
• After his poor debate performance, these unlikely wagers began paying off — with record betting activity on these platforms focused on Biden’s exit and Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic nominee.

They knew something: In May, regulators raised concerns about political betting platforms, suggesting they might undermine election integrity. Despite this, Polymarket has seen impressive growth, with daily volume hitting over $28M on Sunday — nearly six times the $4M to $5M daily volume from the previous month. These markets, driven by highly engaged “degens,” remain a valuable tool for gauging political perceptions (and profiting from their outcomes). Journalists and analysts increasingly refer to them as a leading indicator, and recent events have further confirmed their usefulness.