Gold spent the first half of 2026 defying its safe-haven reputation. Prices cratered through a live geopolitical conflict, then surged the moment a peace deal emerged. The metal's moment of reckoning is still unfolding.

What broke gold's safe haven

Gold hit an all-time high of $5.6K an ounce in early January, then spent the next several months in freefall. By early June, it had lost more than 20% from that peak. It briefly tested the $4K level for the first time since November.

The Iran conflict drove investors away from gold. Higher energy prices stoked inflation fears, raising the likelihood of Fed rate hikes, which weigh on non-yielding assets (investments that pay no interest or dividends) like gold.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, described it as a broad reset in investor sentiment. Hansen said lower futures open interest (the total number of active, unsettled contracts), ETF outflows, and softer physical demand all reflected that reset.

Peace deal shifts the rate math

A US-Iran framework deal to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent spot gold up on Jun. 15. Traders cut the odds of a December US rate hike to 52.5%, per CME FedWatch data. That's down from ~70% the prior week.

Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said "The gold market is moving past the conflict and pricing it out." He added that the peace deal drove down Treasury yields, the dollar, and oil.

The next test is the Fed's Jun. 16–17 meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh. Markets want to know whether easing oil-driven inflation changes the rate path, per Reuters.

Miners moved like a different asset

Gold stocks fell harder than the metal and with more volatility. A NYSE gauge of miners dropped 31% since late February while the S&P 500 gained 8% over the same stretch.

The problem traces back to 2025, when gold surged 65%. The same NYSE miners index jumped 155% that year. NewmontNEM

, Barrick MiningGOLD

, and Agnico Eagle MinesAEM

all surged in triple digits.

That run created a liquid, crowded position that was easy to exit when sentiment flipped. The VanEck Gold Miners ETFGDX

saw three consecutive months of outflows after the war began, per Bloomberg.

"Gold's not the same trade that it was 10 years ago," said Brian Laks, chief investment officer at Old West Investment Management, which has been cutting its exposure.

Where analysts disagree on direction

Barclays sees gold's structural drivers like persistent inflation, policy uncertainty, and central bank reserve diversification as intact. Barclays recommends Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines among US-listed names.

BMO Capital Markets VP George Heppel sees a separate catalyst forming. He flags a potential ~25% quasi-universal tariff on more than 60 trading partners in the second half of 2026.

That risk, he says, isn't on most analysts' radar yet. He argues it could revive the stagflation (slow economic growth paired with high inflation) and debasement concerns that pushed gold to its January highs.

Capital Economics' David Oxley is less persuaded. He argues that a zero-yielding asset becomes less attractive when rates are rising and the price itself is declining. He adds that the correction has further to run.

The peace deal offered gold a lifeline. Whether it's a genuine floor or a relief rally is a question the Fed meeting will begin to answer.