Elon Musk has given investors another reason to wonder whether Tesla and SpaceX could eventually become one company. Speaking at the All-In Summit Monday night, he pointed to the companies’ deepening collaboration.
Musk stopped short of announcing a deal, and SpaceX did not immediately comment. Still, the idea has more behind it than a passing remark.
Tesla already owns a stake in SpaceX, and the companies have a framework agreement covering future work together. SpaceX purchases Tesla batteries, energy products, and Cybertrucks, while Tesla is bringing Starlink connectivity to Cybercab and its wider vehicle fleet.
Terafab could pull them closer. Musk has tied the proposed chipmaking operation to Tesla’s ability to produce Optimus robots at scale, adding semiconductors to a relationship that already spans energy, vehicles, and connectivity.
The merger could rewrite Musk’s payday
SpaceX buying Tesla could remove several operating targets from Elon Musk’s shareholder-approved pay package. Deal value would become the main hurdle for an award covering up to 423.7M Tesla shares.
Musk was originally expected to meet a mix of valuation, cash-flow, and operating goals to collect the full award. Those milestones include delivering Tesla’s 20 millionth vehicle, selling 1M robots, and putting 1M robotaxis on the road.
One analysis estimated that a $2T SpaceX bid would value Tesla at $506 a share before accounting for the deal’s effects. Musk could control roughly 73% of the combined company’s voting power under the same scenario.
Mary Ellen Carter, an accounting professor at Boston College, said the award was designed to be difficult to earn.
Investors are pricing the possibility
SpaceX’s IPO gave investors another route into Musk’s AI and space businesses. Tesla shareholders have since started treating a merger as a possible endgame rather than casual speculation.
Tesla was down 15% for 2026 at the time, while SpaceX’s valuation moved sharply after listing. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives placed the likelihood of a merger next year above 80%, while Polymarket traders gave it 39% odds by December.
Roundhill Financial CEO Dave Mazza said Tesla’s shares already carried an acquisition premium.
“No deal means no shortcut for Tesla.”
Dave Mazza, Roundhill Financial
Tesla and SpaceX already work together across chips, connectivity, batteries, AI, and data centers. SpaceX’s IPO prospectus mentioned Tesla over 80 times, with references to Terafab, Starlink, Digital Optimus, and Macrohard.
Merger expectations may keep supporting Tesla’s valuation. Without a deal, Robotaxi and Optimus will have to carry more of the growth story on their own.