Mattel and Hasbro Brace for Recession-Level Impact as Tariff War Toys With Holiday Sales

America’s toymakers are discovering that trade wars aren’t child’s play. As tariffs reaching 20-30% tore through major suppliers in China and Vietnam, MattelMAT

and HasbroHAS

have responded with downcast quarters. With retailers delaying orders before the holiday season, the latter’s CEO forecasts that the impact on the toy industry could be similar to 2008’s recession.

• MAT
  plunged 16.4% yesterday after revealing a 16% drop in North American sales — also slashing its 2025 growth forecast up to 3%.
• HAS
  ’ toy sales also plummeted 16% — though it surprisingly beat revenue estimates thanks to a record-breaking Magic: The Gathering card release that earned $200M in one day.

Holiday hopes: Both companies remain optimistic about a second-half recovery despite Q2 struggles, with Mattel research noting shoppers plan to spend the same or more this holiday season. However, toy price hikes appear inevitable as Hasbro’s CEO warned of rises starting in August, while Mattel is “targeting pricing actions where necessary.” Popular items like Play-Doh and Barbie may be hard to find if they sell out, as delayed retailer orders mean restocking could prove difficult. Seems like Santa’s going to have to check his supply chain, because nothing ruins Christmas like the tariff naughty list.