Weekly applications for US unemployment benefits fell 6K to a seasonally adjusted 189K in the week ended Oct. 31, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 196K. The prior week's level was revised up to 195K from 194K, and the four-week moving average slipped to 194.75K.
The reading matched the 189K level touched in mid-July, the lowest since 1969. Claims have come in at or below 200K for eight straight weeks and never topped 230K in any week this year. The seasonally adjusted count in the comparable week a year earlier was 228K.
Jobless Claims Fell to a Multi-Decade Low in Late October
Weekly US initial jobless claims and four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted, weeks ending Oct. 17 to Oct. 31, 2026
- Initial claims
- 4-week average
Bar chart. Claims (seasonally adjusted). Oct. 17: Initial claims 195K, 4-week average 198K. Oct. 24: Initial claims 195K, 4-week average 197K. Oct. 31: Initial claims 189K, 4-week average 195K.
Source: US Labor Department
Layoffs are rare, but new jobs are hard to find
Continuing claims, which track people still collecting benefits, rose 23K to 1.718M in the week ended Oct. 24. The insured unemployment rate held at 1.1%. Benefits end after 26 weeks in most states, and the tally excludes recent graduates and others with little work history.
Companies aren't cutting, yet they aren't hiring much either, so anyone out of work tends to stay out longer.
Employers announced 43.99K job cuts in October, up 2% from September but down 71% from a year earlier and the lowest for any October since 2023, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Announced hiring plans totaled 444.69K, a 57% jump from October 2025 and the most for any October since 2009.
Most of that hiring looks temporary. Seasonal holiday demand accounts for much of the planned increase.
Friday's payrolls report is the bigger test
Nonfarm payrolls likely rose 65K in October after a 29K gain in September, a Reuters survey of economists showed. The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 4.2%. ADP's October payrolls count offers an earlier read on private hiring.
Hiring has averaged 68K a month so far this year. Weak by historical standards, it still beats the 9.7K monthly average in 2025, when high interest rates and shifting trade policy kept employers on the sidelines. The September claims report covered the same hiring slump.
Consumer spending has held up, and the surge in artificial intelligence investment has supported growth.
The split cuts both ways. Low layoffs give the Federal Reserve less urgency to cut rates, which supports the dollar and short-term Treasury yields, while rising continuing claims point the other way.
Thursday's claims figures fall outside the survey window for the October employment report, so they won't shape Friday's headline number. The monthly employment report offers a wider view of hiring than weekly filings do.
Some economists argue the labor market may be tightening after September's job openings data showed 1.06 open jobs per unemployed person, up from 1.02 in August.
Either way, the October payrolls number arrives Friday morning, with 65K the bar to clear. The 4.2% unemployment rate is the other number to watch.
