For decades, immigration has been a lightning rod in the American culture war, but it has a surprisingly uncontroversial side effect: economic growth. Despite a slowdown in birth rates, immigration is helping the US population grow — enriching the country’s economy and helping it steer clear of a recession. And in the future, it could play an even bigger role in the country.

• The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says that 3.3M immigrants entered the US last year, a trend expected to continue through 2026 — with new immigrants adding $8.9T to the GDP through 2034.
• The Dallas Fed says that the net immigration inflow is a byproduct of border crossings, asylum applications, and other policies in the US — which have taken center stage this election year.

What does it mean? Business leaders like Elon Musk have warned that “Population collapse is a major risk to the future of civilization,” citing the impacts on pension systems, global order, and innovation. In spite of that, birth rates have continued falling — forcing more industrialized economies to grow their population and economies with foreign workers. Countries like Germany, Italy, and Portugal would have shrunk from 2000 to 2020 if not for their immigration policies. And by the 2040s, the CBO projects immigration will drive substantially all population growth in the US. This means that policies made in 2024 could have a massive impact on the future of the economy.