Everything King Midas touched turned to gold — and now markets are following suit. The precious metal blazed through previous records this week, nearly touching $3K per ounce as President Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda sparked fresh economic concerns. The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed ETF, has capitalized on the gold rush, soaring 37% over the past year. This resurgence mirrors the excitement last seen when rate cuts combined with a weakening dollar, reaccelerating inflation, and softer economic data spurred investor fervor for gold.
- Global holdings in gold-backed ETFs have swelled to ~2.69K tons, reaching levels not seen since Nov. 2023, particularly as the S&P 500 officially entered correction territory this week.
- Market analysts are racing to update their forecasts, with Macquarie Group projecting gold could spike to $3.5K per ounce in Q2, while BNP Paribas expects prices to average above $3K.
Recession jitters intensify: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate recently plummeted from projecting 2.3% real GDP growth to forecasting a troubling -1.5% contraction — a dramatic reversal that’s sending shivers through financial markets. This economic anxiety, coupled with Trump’s threat of 200% tariffs on European alcoholic beverages and plans for sweeping reciprocal tariffs starting in April, creates the perfect environment for gold’s ascent. As IG Asia strategist Yeap Jun Rong noted, “As we approach the second quarter — where reciprocal tariffs could trigger another wave of market turbulence — gold remains a compelling safe-haven asset in an environment where alternatives are scarce.” Ironically, gold’s climb contradicts traditional drivers, as the dollar remains exceptionally strong while inflation recently reached new lows — though fears of its reacceleration persist.
