2022 was a milestone year for electric vehicles (EVs).

• The global electric vehicle market share crossed 10% for the first time.
• Sales grew 68% from the previous year.

What’s the forecast for the industry in 2023?

Code: 60s music for nothing in, 70s for new stuff, 80s for danger.

Danger ahead. Didn’t get that reference? Watch The Last of Us. Your favorite show for 2023. You’re welcome.

Back to the main show… Five major EV trends:

1/ EV sales cannibalize traditional vehicle demand. In 2022, EV sales grew rapidly — but total vehicle sales fell.

• Volkswagen’s EV sales grew 26%, while total new car sales fell 7%.
• Other manufacturers also saw a similar trend — an increase in EV sales but a decrease in total vehicle sales.

2/ This year could be a slow one for EVs, according to analysts (WSJ). And there are three main reasons:

• An economic slowdown could impact sales.
• In some countries, cash rebates have been lowered or removed altogether.
• Rising electricity prices and falling energy prices could reduce the appeal of EVs.

3/ EV’s star child (Tesla) lost market share to competitors in 2022. It’s happening in both the East and West.

• Tesla’s US market share fell from 72% to 65%.
• In China, Tesla’s market share grew from 10% to 11% — while competitor BYD grew theirs from 12% to 23%.

BYD went from 10th place (retail sales) in 2021 to the top spot last year.

4/ Chinese EV makers move internationally. China is the largest EV market in the world — selling ~64% of all global EVs in 2022.

But the US and Europe are expected to take a larger share in 2023 — and Chinese EV makers want in.

• Domestically, Chinese EV makers are already taking market share from western competitors.
• Internationally, BYD has made several European moves, including inking a deal to supply a German rental fleet with 100K vehicles.

5/ EVs are expected to overtake traditional vehicles between 2025-2030. According to the head of Volkswagen’s Chinese operations, EVs made up one in every four vehicle sales last year, and he expects this to grow to one in three this year.