Election Day Is Here, And It’s Anybody’s Race To Win — Here’s What To Know
Rejoice and be happy — the end of political ads and telemarketing calls is near. After a hard-fought few months for politicians and political parties, millions of Americans will head to the ballot box today, joining the millions who have voted early through in-person, mail, and absentee voting. But despite a long list of state amendments, ballot initiatives, and local and state officials, many voters are motivated by the stakes in the White House.
Not so black and white: In recent weeks, some Wall Street billionaires have expressed confidence in a Trump victory, a sentiment also reflected by speculators in commodities, foreign stocks, and prediction markets. But in the 11th hour, nobody is too sure. Trusted pollsters like Times/Siena and ABC News/WaPo show Trump and Harris deadlocked. That means America could be counting ballots in an extremely close election for several days — or pollsters might just be wrong.
- Ex-FiveThirtyEight founder and editor Nate Silver has warned readers that polls are experiencing herding, with pollsters afraid to be wildly off-base like in 2016 and 2020 — a factor that could explain the unanimity in results.
- Trump leads in many analysts’ assessments of the Electoral College, but a series of high-authority independent polls have tipped toward Harris — with surprising data from Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska impacting prediction markets.
Start the Count
In further validation of the uncertainty, investors have sold off Trump Media by more than 40% in the last week, cratering The Donald’s net worth by $2.4B. Compounding the instability, investors have been “shunning hedges” like the VIX and gold, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas — opting for stock indexes instead. As votes are counted over the next few days, some markets could react more than others.
- Prediction markets — which still give Trump a systematic advantage — will likely be the most aggressive in their moves as the election outcomes are reported, particularly as speculators face “all or nothing” returns.
- Bloomberg anticipates that a Trump lead could elevate Bitcoin and gold while hurting the Dollar Spot Index — while a Kamala advantage could strengthen the offshore Chinese yuan, the Mexican peso, and 10-year treasuries.
When will it finally be over? Unfortunately, it could take some time. By campaign email, Kamala Harris’ team indicated they expect nearly complete results to be out for most states by Tuesday evening, but results from Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada could take days to report due to provisional and challenged ballots. For those too anxious to watch, staying out of range of a TV and the internet for several days might be wise. However, for election enthusiasts, resources like NYT’s election tracker, this election night watchlist, and Bloomberg’s election results are good places to stay informed.
