The metal markets are witnessing a copper rally that’s showing no signs of tarnishing. Major trading houses Mercuria and Trafigura and hedge fund Frontier Commodities are confidently predicting copper prices will surge beyond $12K per ton this year, shattering previous records. This bullish outlook comes amid growing global demand and traders scrambling to stockpile the crucial industrial metal ahead of potential US tariffs.

• Comex copper futures have already hit an all-time high at $5.35 per pound in New York, while the price gap with London Metal Exchange prices has widened to $1.4K per ton.
• According to Mercuria’s Kostas Bintas, an estimated 400K to 500K tons of copper are currently en route to American shores, which could potentially lead to shortages in other sectors.

Metal markets at crossroads: While short-term market dynamics favor higher prices, some analysts advise caution. Trafigura’s Graeme Train noted that the global economy was “a little fragile,” while others warn that full-blown trade tensions could ultimately weaken copper consumption. Reports suggesting tariffs might arrive within weeks rather than months have only intensified market anxiety, with Hedgeye analyst Fernando Valle predicting copper will “follow a similar trend of what steel has done, which is a ramp on the back of tariffs.” Analysts also point to additional demand drivers, including European defense spending increases, Chinese economic stimulus measures, and expanding AI infrastructure needs — all potentially supporting elevated prices even after the tariff dust settles.