The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence fell to 46 in Q4 2026, down 6 points from 52 in Q3, the lowest reading since Q2 2025.
Anything below 50 means more CEOs gave negative answers than positive ones. The survey drew 131 CEOs of large US firms and was fielded from September 21 through October 5.
The share of CEOs expecting economic conditions to worsen over the next six months jumped to 41%, up from 19% a quarter earlier. Assessments of their own industries turned sharply less positive, with little improvement expected six months out.
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence
Index reading (50 = neutral; below 50 indicates negative outlook)
Bar chart. Q3 2026: Index Reading 52. Q4 2026: Index Reading 46.
Diesel and geopolitics are doing the damage
Executives pointed to rising energy costs, particularly diesel, along with geopolitical uncertainty.
"All these inflationary shocks, one after the other, is weighing down on the confidence of both CEOs and consumers."
Dana Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board
Diesel is the quiet input cost behind almost everything physical. The oil shock from the war in Iran has pushed prices through trucking first, then rail, agriculture, construction, mining, ports, and backup power.
The squeeze goes beyond crude. Disrupted overseas refineries, heavy US exports, thin distillate inventories, and near-full refinery utilization have lifted both feedstock costs and refining margins. The Conference Board expects price volatility into 2027, with companies leaning on fuel surcharges, route optimization, supplier diversification, and shifts to rail.
Longer-term optimism hasn't cracked yet
CEOs still like their own three-year prospects even while they sour on the next six months.
A separate study of more than 1,300 CEOs globally, including 400 in the US, found 84% confident in their own company's growth over three years and 82% confident in their industry. Confidence in US economic growth sat at 79%, well ahead of the 64% who felt good about the global economy.
The worries show up in the same data. Inflationary pressures will hit their organizations over the next three years, 78% of CEOs said, and 79% flagged geopolitical conflicts and tensions.
Corporate caution tends to show up later in hiring plans, capital spending, and inventory decisions rather than in the quarter being reported. For investors, the gap between gloomy six-month views and steady three-year confidence is the number to watch next quarter.
