Biopharma giant BiogenBIIB

was once hailed for claiming it had the answer to one of the most difficult diseases of our time — but proclaiming to be a prophet without handing investors prophetic returns to match comes with its consequences. Down 46% YTD, the company is among America’s worst-performing large-caps stocks… and its outlook isn’t improving anytime soon.

Biogen? More like Biobust: Fool investors once, shame on them — fool them twice? Well… shame on them again. In 2021, Biogen stunned the world when the FDA greenlit their ill-fated Alzheimer’s drug, Aduhelm. It was the first new treatment for the disease in 20 years, but it was shrouded in controversy — with concerns that the drug didn’t actually work. Analysts predicted up to $10B in peak sales — but in the end, Biogen fell far short. The company eventually stopped selling Aduhelm — which cost $56K per year — and pivoted to a new drug that actually works. The only problem? The replacement isn’t selling well, either.

• Last year, the FDA approved Leqembi, priced lower at $26.5K per year and presumed to help stop the march of the disease — but despite Eisai and Biogen forecasting peak sales to eclipse $7B by 2030, they aren’t getting close.
• Nearly two years after launch, sales have remained anemic — Biogen spent $242.3M to launch Leqembi but turned only $67M in sales last quarter, leaving the drug unprofitable.

Bad for Biogen, Great for Patients

They say it’s darkest before dawn, but for Biogen, it feels like midnight on repeat. On Monday, its stock hit a new 52-week low of $148, which came as Stifel analysts downgraded the company from “buy” to “hold” due to weak sales growth. And that’s not the only problem they’re quarreling with.

• A recently approved competing drug from Eli LillyLLY
  called Kisnula was found to be more effective at slowing cognitive and functional decline in early Alzheimer’s patients — also, it only needs to be dosed every four weeks instead of every two.
• Meanwhile, European regulators approved Leqembi this year but rejected its use for a “broader population of all patients with early Alzheimer’s.”

America’s biggest loser: As of Dec. 16, Biogen’s market cap is sitting at $21B — just high enough to survive the year-end Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 rebalancing. Next time, it might not be so lucky. The once high-flying biotech firm is the second-worst performing large-cap with weight in America’s major indexes, trailing only languishing chipmaker IntelINTC

. Together, these two companies have been one of the largest drags on Americans’ portfolios. While a rebound isn’t out of the question, investors feel it’s unlikely anytime soon — with its best-sellers going generic, a weak and uninspiring drug pipeline, and superior competition bearing down on its promised “blockbuster.” At times like this, some might even be wishing that Samsung’s rumored interest in acquiring Biogen had panned out.