Bettors’ Track Record Will Be Tested As Markets Favor Sure Trump Victory
In the lead-up to the election, speculators in stocks and prediction markets have overwhelmingly favored The Donald. As we head into the final stretch, they remain confident, with Trump Media up 202% over the past month and Trump’s odds nearing record highs on betting markets. However, with just a week remaining until the election, polls are closer to a toss-up — so why are bettors so sure?
- On Polymarket, Trump’s odds of winning are trading at a 25% advantage over Kamala Harris — compared with a 4% polling margin in favor of Trump on Decision Desk and FiveThirtyEight.
- A total of 670 Polymarket bettors — or 0.7% of accounts — have contributed to Trump’s outsized odds, representing over half of the purchase volume in the market.
Bettor beware: Prediction markets are real-time assessments of the odds of something happening, but bettors have been wrong in past elections. According to NYT’s Kaleigh Rogers, bettors “were even more confident than some forecasters” that Hillary Clinton would win in 2016. And in 2020, bettors continued to back Trump even after the AP called the election for Biden. As recently as 2022, bettors also showed inconsistency during the US midterm elections. This means the current sentiment in the market could change at any time, especially as the election draws closer.
