The delivery guy is about to get served some bad news. Barclays says robots and drones could cut delivery costs to about $1 per order, roughly $8–$9 cheaper than human couriers in high-cost markets. That gap alone could unlock around $16B in annual profit for the global food delivery industry.
- Autonomous delivery currently costs about $5–$7 per drop in early markets, making it $3–$4 cheaper than traditional rider-based delivery.
- It accounts for under 1% of global orders today, but Barclays expects penetration to rise to around 10% by 2035.
Fast lane picks: DoorDash and Meituan lead Barclays’ near-term picks, backed by active deployments and high labor exposure that automation can directly reduce. Uber also stands to benefit, while Grab and Delivery Hero remain longer-term bets as pilots expand. With penetration still negligible, the real challenge is seeing whether platforms can deliver on the margin.