ASML’s Chip Recovery Forecast Dims, Sparking Meltdown
ASML’s Q3 earnings report just revealed that the chip equipment firm has short-circuited, sending shockwaves through the sector. Following a semiconductor boom, chipmakers now face a sales glut, and the Dutch machinist has disappointed investors with its unexpectedly slow rebound — sparking a selloff as geopolitical tensions unsettle investors.
- Q3 orders drastically fell short of analysts’ €5.59B forecast, booking €2.63B ($2.87B) — triggering a 15% stock nosedive that dragged down industry peers like Nvidia ($NVDA) and Intel ($INTC).
- “The recovery is more gradual than previously expected,” said CEO Christophe Fouquet, guiding next year’s revenue down by €5B to €10B as demand for semiconductor-making machinery slows.
Geopolitical chess game: Bank of America foresees a “sharp decline in China revenues” for ASML amid tightening US and EU export restrictions. Or, as ASML’s CFO considerately puts it, a “more normalized percentage in our order book” for China sales, which are forecasted to drop to 20% of total sales, down from a peak of 49% earlier this year. “ASML is deeply reliant on China,” says a geopolitical analyst, and the firm is “severely restricted by export controls.” With exports to core clients like TSMC and Samsung now impacted, the future isn’t looking chipper for ASML.
