America’s Agriculture Industry Was Already Suffering — Now Tariffs and Deportation Raids Could Test It Even More

If everything we need is already here, then why does America import so damn much? Well, there’s a lot of people here — over 330 million. And to meet the consumption demands of that many people, America imports goods from over 100 countries. Its buying power is one significant factor in its reliance on imports — which now represent the majority of its fruits and nearly a third of its vegetables on store shelves. But America’s needs and wants don’t boil down to many agricultural businesses based here. In fact, its foothold in the world has made it hard to grow crops at home — and it might be about to get harder.

Picking the problem apart: America’s agricultural market is a giant in grain, soybean, and cotton production, among others. But the business might be caught in the crossfire of the Trump trade war if world powers don’t hug it out and make a deal. According to the WSJ, “Volatility in agricultural markets is predicted to explode” in the event that President Trump’s tariffs on leading US trade partners like Mexico, China, Canada, and the EU go into effect on Feb. 1. In response, futures traded at the Chicago Board of Trade such as soybeans, corn, and wheat all declined 1% on Wednesday.

• China is a valuable customer for American farmers — but tariffs would virtually assure a decline in purchases from the world’s largest importer of agricultural goods.
• This would create even more trouble for American agriculture, which has already seen hefty declines in farm profitability — with one study finding that just 58% of farmers expect to be profitable in 2025.

Running in Crop Circles

Making matters worse for agriculture, Trump is targeting its largest source of labor: undocumented workers. Between 2020 and 2022, the USDA found that 42% of crop farmworkers held no work authorization. And because of that, the Trump administration’s “mass deportation” plan is weighing heavy in crop fields across the country.

• In Bakersfield, CA, fear of immigration raids has caused a “massive drop off” in the number of field workers showing up for work — with up to 75% of workers absent during peak citrus harvest.
• The raids risk exasperating employment conditions in industries that are already starved for workers, with Nebraska’s meat industry facing “one of the worst labor shortages in the country.”

What happens next? In the US, there are a few studies to consider. Florida and Georgia have passed legislation requiring companies to verify citizenship status for employees (employers are supposed to do this anyway but often don’t when working with undocumented workers). Both bills immediately caused undocumented workers to stop showing up for work in key industries, generating long-term dearths in labor supply. Those shortages are seldom filled by domestic workers, who often simply don’t want to do the work. Taken together, fewer workers and less yield could cause volatility across global food markets — and risk reviving the march of inflation.