EconomyJan 23, 2025
America’s Agriculture Industry Was Already Suffering — Now Tariffs and Deportation Raids Could Test It Even More
Food Security
Noah Weidner
Discover
If everything we need is already here, then why does America import so damn much? Well, there’s a lot of people here — over 330 million. And to meet the consumption demands of that many people, America imports goods from over 100 countries. Its buying power is one significant factor in its reliance on imports — which now represent the majority of its fruits and nearly a third of its vegetables on store shelves. But America’s needs and wants don’t boil down to many agricultural businesses based here. In fact, its foothold in the world has made it hard to grow crops at home — and it might be about to get harder.
Picking the problem apart: America’s agricultural market is a giant in grain, soybean, and cotton production, among others. But the business might be caught in the crossfire of the Trump trade war if world powers don’t hug it out and make a deal. According to the WSJ, “Volatility in agricultural markets is predicted to explode” in the event that President Trump’s tariffs on leading US trade partners like Mexico, China, Canada, and the EU go into effect on Feb. 1. In response, futures traded at the Chicago Board of Trade such as soybeans, corn, and wheat all declined 1% on Wednesday.
Making matters worse for agriculture, Trump is targeting its largest source of labor: undocumented workers. Between 2020 and 2022, the USDA found that 42% of crop farmworkers held no work authorization. And because of that, the Trump administration’s “mass deportation” plan is weighing heavy in crop fields across the country.
What happens next? In the US, there are a few studies to consider. Florida and Georgia have passed legislation requiring companies to verify citizenship status for employees (employers are supposed to do this anyway but often don’t when working with undocumented workers). Both bills immediately caused undocumented workers to stop showing up for work in key industries, generating long-term dearths in labor supply. Those shortages are seldom filled by domestic workers, who often simply don’t want to do the work. Taken together, fewer workers and less yield could cause volatility across global food markets — and risk reviving the march of inflation.
