Despite generationally high interest rates, the US economy has continued to post strong jobs and economic growth — but worries are mounting among Americans. In the New York Fed’s latest consumer expectations survey, respondents reported a deterioration in wages, benefits, and promotion opportunities — and higher levels of concern about job stability.

• In July, the percentage of survey respondents who felt they were “likely” to be unemployed in the next four months reached a decade-high of 4.4%.
• The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in July, tripping the Sahm Rule — an indicator that suggests a recession has begun when unemployment increases by 0.5% over a three-month moving period.

How bad could it get? Despite economic angst, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 2.9M positions over the 12 months leading to Mar. 2024 — averaging 242K jobs per month. However, these payroll numbers are now widely expected to be revised downward. Analysts predict that between 300K and 1M jobs initially reported could vanish in a follow-on report, signaling that hiring has been cooling for much longer than originally thought.