The world has officially bid 2024 adieu — a year filled with highs, lows, and everything in between. Here at the Joe, it’s been a busy ride, but after a whirlwind 366 days, 366 stocks in the S&P 500 finished the year in the green. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Bitcoin rose 27%, 24%, and 120%, respectively, making 2024 an all-timer for the markets. But now, the focus shifts to what’s ahead.

Predictions galore: Wall Street analysts initially forecasted a modest 6.2% gain for the S&P 500 in 2023 — instead, the index soared to more than four times that, capping off the year near all-time highs. For 2024, the consensus outlook was a 3% increase, but the benchmark is ending the year up 24%. In fact, none of America’s major financial institutions came close to estimating the index’s stunning performance or the market’s surprising optimism post-Election Day. But with fresh insights, they’re hoping to capture investors’ upbeat views in their 2025 forecasts.

• According to the NYT, analysts expect the S&P 500 to march 9.6% this year — with Oppenheimer offering the most bullish estimate, predicting the S&P 500 will hit 7.1K by year-end.
• On the other hand, Stifel offers the most cautious view, vaguely forecasting a mid–5K target — one of just 19 strategists tracked by Bloomberg auguring a decline.

Speed Bump

Much of investors’ enthusiasm stems from high expectations for S&P 500 earnings in 2025, which are anticipated to grow even faster than in 2024. FactSet reports analysts predict 14.8% earnings growth, nearly double the 10-year average. While this helps explain the market’s rich valuation, it might also be at odds with anxious investors.

• In 2024, the index’s top ten stocks accounted for more than half its returns — including NvidiaNVDA
  , BroadcomAVGO
  , and TeslaTSLA
  , which rose 177%, 116%, and 73%, respectively.
• It was also only the fourth time in 100 years that the index delivered back-to-back annual returns of 20% — making a repeat performance unprecedented.

What’s working against the market? With worries about tariff talk, stretched valuations, and slower market growth, businesses will have to be on their best behavior. Research from Apollo highlights that these themes, along with inflated projections for high-flyers like Nvidia, are likely to be the talk of the town this year. Furthermore, an Axios survey reveals lingering anxiety among Americans over softer growth and stubborn inflation. Our readers had their own views — scroll down to our Bear & Bull survey results to see what they had to say.