Halloween tricked us all. Thanks to a decline during the festivities, the S&P 500 saw its first monthly drop in five months. But that hasn’t stopped investors from feeling positive about their portfolios — 62% of readers remained bullish heading into November, according to our latest monthly Bear or Bull survey.

• The sentiment was matched by data from The Conference Board, showing a record number of Americans believing the market will continue rising next year.
• If the S&P 500 maintains its current levels, it would mark its best performance in ~25 years — a trajectory that could be influenced this week as Americans head to the ballot box.

Forward-looking: While interest rate cuts and a hot AI market have driven this year’s gains, a weaker-than-expected October job report and a string of strong tech earnings could help extend the momentum into 2025. TS Lombard’s Chief US Economist Steven Blitz expects the Fed to lower rates by another 0.75 percentage points over three meetings before pausing. Major banks have also begun making 2025 year-end predictions, with UBS recently forecasting the S&P 500 could climb another 13-14% next year.

Staying grounded: Why the S&P 500 is at risk of a potential correction