‘Tis the season for retailers to rejoice, as Americans are ready to begin their holiday spending spree. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), 2024 holiday sales are projected to rise between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to last year, potentially reaching $989B. This year’s growth is driven by a still-strong job market and rising wages, which paint a picture of an economy that remains “fundamentally healthy,” according to NRF CEO Matthew Shay.

• Online and non-store sales are poised to grow by up to 9%, potentially reaching $297.9B — an increase from $273.3B last year.
• Retailers are gearing up for the holiday rush, planning to employ between 400K and 500K seasonal workers — just below last year’s 509K holiday hires.

Deck the halls with caution: While the forecast looks promising, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz notes that Americans may opt to “spend more cautiously” this holiday season — even despite having robust household finances. Adding to the complexity, the holiday shopping period is shrinking by five days, injecting extra urgency into the Thanksgiving-to-Christmas shopping sprint. With the economic impact of the hurricanes and the 2024 presidential election on the horizon, retailers are hoping that shoppers will continue to view the holidays as a time for generosity — and perhaps some retail therapy.