MarketsJul 6, 2026
Strategy's Biggest Asset Is Under Pressure. So Is the Model Behind It
Treasury Shifts
Rhea Lobo
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Strategy sold 3,588 BTC last week for $216M, using the proceeds to fund preferred-share dividends and top up its cash reserve.
The sale came days after the company unveiled a monetization program on June 29 that authorizes selling up to $1.25B in bitcoin.
The company still holds ~843.76K BTC at a cost basis of ~$75.48K per coin. Bitcoin was trading near $62K at the start of this week, leaving Strategy sitting on an $8.32B unrealized loss for the second quarter.
Strategy built its acquisition model on a valuation metric it created called mNAV, which tracks its enterprise value as a multiple of its bitcoin holdings. When the stock traded at a premium to its bitcoin, the company could issue shares and debt to buy more coins.
That premium has collapsed. Strategy's stock is down 75% over the past year, and mNAV briefly fell below 1.0 last month, meaning the market valued the company at less than its bitcoin pile.
The metric has a built-in flaw that makes the problem look less severe than it is. Strategy calculates enterprise value using the face value of its $6.75B in debt and $15.46B in preferred stock, not their market prices.
At the time mNAV showed 0.99, the debt was trading at a 7% discount and the preferred shares at a 28% discount. Using market values, mNAV would have been 0.89, not 0.99.
As of Thursday, the company's website showed mNAV at 1.09, but the market-adjusted figure was closer to 1.04, only a slim premium.
Despite the pressure, Strategy's buying has cushioned bitcoin's decline. Spot bitcoin ETFs shed $5.5B in outflows this year, but corporate treasury purchases kept net market inflows positive.
"Strategy's Bitcoin buying has been a balancing force in the market where leading US Bitcoin miners have been net sellers," Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein.
Bernstein analysts noted that bitcoin's drawdown has been milder than prior crypto winters, in part because Strategy continues to be a net buyer.
The risk is what happens if mNAV stays below 1.0. By the company's own logic, a sustained discount means it should be selling bitcoin to buy back its own securities.
Strategy's BTC holding represents roughly 4% of the total bitcoin supply, so any large-scale liquidation would amplify price pressure across the entire market.
