BusinessJul 3, 2026
How Serious Is Starlink's Threat to America's Telecom Giants?
Connectivity War
Rhea Lobo
Discover
Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile were among the worst-performing S&P 500 components after reports surfaced that SpaceX is planning a direct-to-consumer Starlink mobile service in the US.
The sell-off raises a clear question: how seriously should investors take a satellite company's bid to become a phone carrier?
SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell discussed the mobile push with investors earlier this year, describing a potential ground network to support mobile service. SpaceX has also developed a prototype handset recently shown to some investors.
Charter Communications has held high-level discussions with SpaceX about partnering on a consumer mobile phone in the US, with Charter potentially running some phone traffic through its own ground-based internet infrastructure.
None of this is an official product launch. It is a stated strategic direction backed by early-stage infrastructure moves.
Starlink is already SpaceX's financial engine. The satellite internet service generated ~$11.4B in 2025 revenue and was SpaceX's only profitable segment that year.
In the first quarter of 2026 alone, Starlink produced ~$3.3B in revenue, representing ~69% of SpaceX's total. It counted more than 10 million home-broadband subscribers at the end of March, with Elon Musk recently citing 12 million active customers worldwide.
Profitable businesses can afford to play offense. Starlink is using that position to acquire the raw materials for a mobile network.
To support its wireless ambitions, SpaceX has agreed to acquire more than $20B of wireless spectrum from EchoStar. It also recently spent $8.5M to secure two cellular licenses in a Federal Communications Commission auction.
Satellite connections currently offer slower speeds on phones compared to terrestrial networks. Analysts say SpaceX would need a ground network to service locations satellites cannot reach well, including buildings and tunnels.
T-Mobile leads on value pricing and 5G coverage. Verizon targets premium customers. AT&T bundles wireless with fiber. Each has decades of customer relationships, retail infrastructure, and far more licensed spectrum than SpaceX currently holds.
"A direct consumer product changes the relationship with the carriers from partner to competitor, and that matters more than the product specs in year one."
Roger Entner, Recon Analytics
Starlink currently partners with T-Mobile to provide satellite connectivity in remote areas where traditional cell service is unavailable. A direct retail push would convert that partnership into direct competition.
BNP Paribas analysts wrote that even a Charter-SpaceX partnership would not remove the role of terrestrial networks from US connectivity. They noted the equity moves suggest the SpaceX and Charter story looms large despite that limitation.
Oppenheimer analyst Tim Horan wrote that SpaceX may disrupt the $1.6T communications industry. Capturing even 2% to 5% of the US wireless market could translate into 8M to 20M mobile subscribers.
Verizon already carries a high level of debt, meaning any competitive response requiring heavy spectrum or network spending would add balance sheet pressure.
