“Seriously underwater” mortgages aren’t scaring some investors away from real estate

The move for homeowners in 2024 — seems to be no move. Last week, Gallup released survey results that showed 76% of Americans believe it’s not the best time to buy a house — a slight dip from last year’s record high of 78%. This reluctance isn’t surprising, given the high mortgage rates, climbing home prices, and the ongoing shortage of 7.2M homes in the US.

• Redfin’s CEO recently described the housing market as hitting “rock bottom,” noting that “sales volume couldn’t be worse. The only people moving right now are the ones who absolutely have to” (MSN).
• With 30-year mortgage rates still hovering above 7%, buyers are paying an extra ~$1K per month with a 20% downpayment on a $500K home compared to the sub-3% rates in 2021.

Tricky situation: ATTOM warned last week that 2.7% of US homes have loans amounting to at least 25% of their property value — a slight bump from the previous quarter’s 2.6%, but half of pre-pandemic levels. Despite this, some institutional investors are getting ready to pounce. Hedge fund Deer Park Road Management, which made lucrative bets in the housing market during the 2008 crisis, has raised a $170M fund to acquire mortgages — anticipating rate cuts “later this year” to fuel returns.