The home remodeling market has been on a hot streak for over a decade — but the boom is ending… for now. After homeowners spent a record $481B on home renovations last year, experts say that number could drop to $449B this year and keep falling into 2025. Why the change? High interest rates make folks hesitant to spend on home projects — and limited inventory isn’t helping.

• High mortgage rates mean fewer people are buying or selling homes, so fewer sellers are trying to spruce up their homes before listing them, and fewer buyers are fixing things up after moving in.
• Many building-supply stocks are underperforming the S&P 500 — including Home DepotHD
  , which is down 2% year-to-date after missing revenue expectations last quarter.

Trex bets big: Even with the gloomy predictions, deck maker TrexTREX

is expanding by building a massive $450M factory in Arkansas — with hopes that homeowners locked into mortgages might want to build a deck to enjoy their backyards while they’re there. Plus, homeowners have $31.8T saved up in home equity — so if rates come down soon, renovations might boom. But that’s a solid “if” — the chance of a September rate cut is only ~70%.