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MarketsJul 1, 2026

Commodity Markets Heat Up Again as Weather Disrupts Key Crops

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The commodity market has a lot on its plate — and none of it is cheap. From coffee and cocoa to sugar and fertilizer, weather disruptions and supply concerns are pushing prices higher across the agricultural complex. The next bumper crop could be in portfolios.

Bitter and sweet: Raw sugar futures recently climbed as much as 2.9%, reaching their highest level since mid-May. El Niño concerns are fueling the rally, with below-normal July rainfall threatening India's sugar output and exports. Coffee is also volatile, with arabica futures swinging sharply after their biggest one-day gain since 2021. StoneX says expectations for a large Brazilian harvest remain at odds with tight physical supply.

Nestlé may cut coffee prices as bean costs ease, though consumers could wait up to nine months for lower prices to reach store shelves.
Fund managers are unwinding bearish sugar positions, signaling sentiment is shifting as traders grow increasingly bullish on the market.

The Chocolate Hangover

Chocolate makers remain in crisis mode. Mondelez recorded a $984M pre-tax mark-to-market loss on commodity contracts, while Hershey lost $423M. Both have reduced cocoa content in some products to manage costs, though analysts say consumer demand has remained resilient despite the changes.

Cocoa prices swung from ~$12K per metric ton in late 2024 to under $2.9K in early 2026, leaving companies with costly inventories.
European cocoa demand fell 7.8% year-over-year in Q1 2026, and North American demand dropped 3.8%, even as cocoa prices tumbled.

Planting the next cycle: The USDA announced a $500M investment to boost domestic fertilizer production and suspended duties on Moroccan phosphate imports, a move expected to cut prices by 22%. Nutrien, The Mosaic Company, and CF Industries fluctuated on the news as markets assessed the policy's impact. The next commodity boom may be built upstream.