US Stocks Set for 6.5% Returns Over Next Decade — Weakest Among All Regions

The party may be winding down for US equity dominance. Goldman Sachs strategists now expect the S&P 500 to return only 6.5% annually over the next decade, the weakest outlook among all regions, while emerging markets could post gains closer to 10.9%. After years of market outperformance fueled by AI enthusiasm, the tailwinds that supported America’s lead are now fading.

• The slowdown is already visible, with the S&P 500’s nearly 15% gain falling well behind the 30% surge in the MSCI World ex USA Index this year.
• Goldman’s Peter Oppenheimer warns that the old engines of US stock strength — strong margins, tax cuts, and near-zero rates — won’t generate the same powerful lift going forward.

Diversification calling: Oppenheimer is steering investors toward emerging markets like China and India, with Asia ex-Japan expected to return 10.3% annually and Japan around 8.2% thanks to improving earnings and shareholder reforms. Meanwhile, international markets are wobbling as stretched valuations and dimming odds of December rate cuts weigh on sentiment. With global earnings growth set to converge and US margins still near record highs, the baton of market leadership may be preparing to move abroad.