US-Iran Conflict Just Added Fresh Pressure to an Expected 2.5% Rise in Food Prices

Your grocery bill was already headed north before anyone fired a shot. The USDA had forecast a 2.5% rise in 2026 food-at-home prices, with beef and veal up 5.5% and sugar and sweets up 6.7%. Those pressures could now intensify after the US-Iran conflict effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for 25% of global seaborne oil and 35% of global urea fertilizer exports.

• Food expert Raj Patel says bread prices could rise within six to ten weeks, with eggs and pork following months later.
• Fertilizer markets are spiking as Middle East granular urea jumped from ~$130 to $575–$650 per tonne while QatarEnergy halted sulfur, ammonia, and urea output after a drone strike.

The harvest clock’s ticking: Farmers across the Northern Hemisphere are entering peak fertilizer season — the worst moment for a supply shock. Yara CEO Svein Tore Holsether warned, “If you’re not getting [fertilizer] into the field of the farmers, yields could go down by up to 50% in the first harvest.” Neuberger Berman’s Hakan Kaya warned the stakes “cannot be overstated,” noting a prolonged Strait closure could push crude well into triple digits. Unlike the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock, this chokepoint can’t simply be routed around.