US “Freight Recession” Deepens As Trade Wars Cast Long Shadows

America’s freight sector is having a titanic moment, with tariffs flooding in faster than companies can bail. President Trump’s trade war iceberg has sent the logistics sector’sIYT

ETF down 7.3% since early April. As freight volumes sink, this critical economic barometer signals potential storms ahead for the broader economy.

• The Cass Freight Index reveals a 5.3% one-year shipment decline — while logistics stocks like J.B. HuntJBHT
  , ArcBestARCB
  , and Old Dominion Freight LineODFL
  have plunged by 11.4%, 15.5%, and 8.3% respectively since “Liberation Day.”
• Amid a 90-day tariff pause that excludes China, Cass expects “brisk demand for pre-tariff goods” before the “freight recession” continues — while LA’s bustling port braces for a 10% import decline in the H2.

Warning signs ahead: With up to 25% of US freight activity tied directly to international trade, geopolitical tensions spell double trouble. Hapag-LloydHLAGF

, the world’s fifth-largest container line, expects its EBITDA to plummet up to 48% in 2025 as resumed Houthi attacks inflate shipping costs amid the Gaza ceasefire collapse. As freight companies navigate this perfect storm, we should all take note — when containers stop moving, wallets soon follow.