Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves — but unlocking them comes with a brutal price tag. After the reported capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, President Donald Trump pitched a plan for US oil giants to spend billions reviving the country’s energy sector. Decades of mismanagement have left output near 1% of global supply, meaning any real recovery would take years and tens of billions in capital.

Racing toward opportunity: US oil stocks jumped on the news, with ChevronCVX

, ConocoPhillipsCOP

, and Exxon MobilXOM

all posting gains as investors fixated on Venezuela’s scale — more than 303B barrels of proven reserves, even larger than Saudi Arabia’s. But private capital is moving faster than the cautious majors. Ali Moshiri, Chevron’s former head of Latin America, is raising $2B through Amos Global Energy Management to pursue early Venezuelan investments, telling the Financial Times that investor interest has surged “from zero to 99%” in just 24 hours.

• Chevron and smaller operators could lift Venezuela’s output to 1.5M barrels per day within 18 months at a cost of up to $7B, assuming current production near 1M bpd, according to Moshiri.
• Venezuela once pumped 3.5M barrels per day in the 1970s — more than 7% of global supply — but output has since collapsed to about 1.1M barrels per day last year.

Oil’s Long Road Back

Trump called Venezuela’s oil industry “a total bust,” and that assessment largely holds. Years of underinvestment have left oil fields plagued by aging infrastructure, power outages, and equipment theft. Adding just 500K barrels a day would take about two years and $10B, while larger gains could require tens of billions more. Complicating matters, US officials have told oil executives they must front the capital before recovering expropriation claims — a hard sell for ConocoPhillips, still pursuing $12B, and Exxon Mobil, which is seeking $1.65B through arbitration.

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio said US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector will stay in place until political changes deliver results and “a better future for the people of Venezuela.”
• Daniel Yergin of S&P Global warned that Venezuela’s recovery hinges on politics, pointing to Iraq, where oil output took years to rebound after the 2003 invasion.

Dreams on pause: Only Chevron currently holds a US license to operate in Venezuela, giving it the clearest path to scale output. Even so, caution prevails — ConocoPhillips says it’s premature to discuss investments, and industry insiders say CEOs at Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips were blindsided by the military action. Former Chevron executive Ali Moshiri notes that few companies will rush into an unstable environment — highlighting that Venezuela’s oil riches may be vast, but the risks remain just as large.