Unless you’re one of its 4M residents, the Commonwealth of Kentucky might not cross your mind too often. Perhaps it’s most memorable to Americans because of fried chicken or college basketball, but it’s also a hotbed for southern staples like horse racing, bourbon, and bluegrass music. For all its hospitality and historical role in the Union, it’s often overlooked — but America should pay attention.

The Real America: In recent months, the media has focused on political battlegrounds like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania when covering tariffs, the economy, and the culture war. But they should’ve gone to Kentucky. While investors and analysts have spent recent weeks speculating about economic uncertainty tied to new policies, the Union’s 15th state has already been living through the consequences — while also dealing with historic flooding. Its most valuable organizations are already in a bear market, hit by the trade war and changing economic attitudes.

• Among its top 10 public companies, only one — KFC parent Yum BrandsYUM
  — is in the green year-to-date.
• Beyond markets, Kentucky’s economy and jobs could be at risk, given its reliance on universities, auto manufacturing, and logistics — all vulnerable to policy changes.

Trouble in My Old Kentucky Home

Given the uncertainty, firms are pulling back on spending — Kentucky Derby operator Churchill DownsCHDN

is holding off on facility upgrades, while healthcare leader HumanaHUM

is trimming costs and retreating from businesses it deems unprofitable. Other brands are also facing their own trials and tribulations.

• Many of Kentucky’s most valuable consumer-facing orgs have issued weaker outlooks amid the cooling economy — Texas RoadhouseTXRH
  , ValvolineVVV
  , and Papa John’sPZZA
  — they’re down 5%, 5%, and 17% YTD.
• Jack Daniel’s owner Brown-Forman ($BF.B), America’s largest spirits and wines brand, has also been juggling an alcohol sales slowdown and being a target in the US trade war — leading to hundreds of job cuts and a 7% YTD drop in its stock.

Zoom out: Over the last year, few Kentucky-based corporations have outperformed the S&P 500.PZZA

is down 40%,BF.B

is down 27%, andHUM

andVVV

are each down 20%. But there are still horses outracing the index, which is up just 12% over the same period. Healthcare payments provider WaystarWAY

, which went public in Jan. 2024, has nearly doubled since its IPO. Tempur-Pedic parent SomnigroupSGI

, BrightSpring Health ServicesBTSG

, and Stock Yards BancorpSYBT

have also stood out, up 24%, 88%, and 59% respectively.