The COVID Vaccine Stock Everyone Left for Dead Is Making a Serious Comeback
After a 95% collapse, writing off NovavaxNVAX was hard to argue with. Then, the vaccine maker quietly became the only profitable stock among three major COVID-era names. Up 28.8% this past year and still trading at a bargain, the comeback most investors never penciled in is already well underway.
- NVAX’s quarterly EPS of $0.11 crushed estimates by over 126% — with revenue surging 67% year-over-year to $147M, fueled largely by a SanofiSNY partnership.
- During the same period, Novavax slashed operating costs by 53% — also raising its 2026 revenue outlook to a $270M ceiling, up from a prior forecast of $205M.
The secret formula: The turnaround runs deeper than the earnings beat. Novavax is reinventing itself as a lean, partnership-first platform, targeting diversified royalties rather than high-cost manufacturing. Its proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant is already licensed to PfizerPFE for up to $500M, with early-stage evaluation underway in shingles, RSV, and oncology. Still, the risks haven’t disappeared amid negative shareholder equity of -$127M, near-total dependence on Sanofi revenue, and a beta of 2.63, making this anything but a quiet hold. Surviving was the easy part — now it’s time to prove the model.