Sportsbooks and Trading Apps Are Waging War in Prediction Markets
Remember when your broker and your bookie were two different people? Those days are fading faster than a meme stock rally. Major brokerages and gaming companies are racing to become your one-stop shop for all forms of speculation — further blurring the distinction between “investing” and “gambling.”
The gambling super app: Ever since prediction markets gained legal ground in the US last year, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have grown from niche experiments to mainstream venues, handling billions in trading volume each month. At the start of 2024, Polymarket saw just $54M in trading volume — last month, that number was over $1B, after peaking at $2.63B in Nov. 2024 during the elections. The rise of prediction markets has caught the attention of trading platforms, which now increasingly resemble casinos more than brokerages.
- This week, RobinhoodHOOD announced it’s rolling out prediction markets for NFL and college football games — after already topping 2B contracts traded since introducing the feature late last year.
- Interactive BrokersIBKR has launched prediction markets in the US and Canada, joining a growing roster of traditional finance companies muscling into the betting space.
The House Always Adapts
Sports betting apps have started to retaliate. In March, the Nevada Gaming Control Board demanded that Kalshi cease operations in the state. Similarly, the American Gaming Association expressed concerns that prediction markets could undermine state regulations and impact tax revenue. One platform has even taken matters into its own hands.
- On Wednesday, sports betting app FanDuelFLUT announced a partnership with CME GroupCME to offer bets on the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, oil prices, gold, crypto, and even GDP and inflation — with simple yes/no positions.
- Additionally, DraftKingsDKNG is eyeing its own entry into prediction markets, filing an application with the National Futures Association — as other online gaming and sports betting companies also circle this as a new segment of growth.
Betting against ourselves: The rise of prediction markets reflects deeper economic anxieties where traditional paths to wealth seem increasingly remote. Young traders seek shortcuts around conventional systems, viewing speculative bets as more appealing than traditional employment in an economy that feels stacked against them. Yet the momentum seems unstoppable as companies discover that, whether you call it investing, predicting, or betting, Americans are ready to put money on the line for almost anything that moves.