Rivian Shifts Gears From Electric Trucks to Silicon Dreams
When your car business is underwater, it’s time to re-route. With EVs in free fall, RivianRIVN wants investors to forget the trucks and focus on its shiny new silicon roadmap. Shares rose 20% after unveiling a new plan last Thursday — but still sit roughly three-quarters below the $78 IPO.
- Rivian debuted its proprietary RAP1 chip and evolved software architecture — with hands-free features rolling out this month as it targets full autonomy and robotaxis.
- Needham raised its price target 64% on licensing potential, while Barclays sees “additional software/service revenues” ahead — though shares now trade above average consensus.
Follow the numbers: With EV sales down 33% in October and tax credits gone, Rivian needs a new playbook fast. Gartner predicts only 5% of automakers will sustain substantial AI investment by 2029, and that could be Rivian’s lifeline. Morgan Stanley already values its software business at 1.4x its car business, and the $5.8B VolkswagenVWAGY deal proves licensing revenue has real potential. Still, the company’s bleeding billions while Chinese competitors like NioNIO develop cars in half the time as TeslaTSLA remains dominant in software — proving silicon dreams need to start paying bills, fast.