Restaurant Stocks Serve Up Hope After 2025’s Indigestion
Restaurant chains may finally be getting a seat at the recovery table after a brutal 2025. UBS expects 2026 to bring relief, especially for fast-casual spots and sit-down chains that serve higher-income diners. This shift is being driven by last summer’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which cut trillions in taxes and boosted wealthier wallets even as public assistance came off the menu.
- Restaurant stocks still trade at a discount to the S&P 500, with same-store sales expected to inch back into low single-digit growth even as foot traffic remains negative.
- UBS upgraded Brinker International to buy, citing Chili’s $10.99 value deal, while names like Chipotle Mexican Grill start to regain momentum.
The appetite for caution: Lower-income and younger consumers remain under pressure from tighter SNAP and Medicaid rules, which could weigh on second-half results. UBS flagged ongoing macro strain for these groups, even as Dutch Bros stands out on traffic and mobile ordering. With years of price hikes already baked in, restaurants have little room to raise prices without stalling demand.
