Oil Prices Could Surge Up to $20 Per Barrel Amid Geopolitical Chaos
Oil is staring at a flashpoint. Crude markets are on edge as the US-Israel conflict intensifies, fueling fears of supply disruptions and potential retaliation that threatens regional oil exports. Jorge León of Rystad Energy warns prices could surge $10 to $20 per barrel without resolution, noting, “The strategic initiative now lies with Iran.”
- Oil surged nearly 10% as markets reopened Monday, with Brent crude topping $79 per barrel, its highest level since Jan. 2025.
- The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas, is effectively closed for the time being, putting the next 24–72 hours at the center of oil market direction.
What’s at stake: Iran produces about 3.4M barrels per day, roughly 4% of global supply — but the real wildcard is whether Tehran targets Gulf energy infrastructure, which “would push prices even higher,” León warned. Americans may not feel it instantly, yet every $10 jump in crude typically adds 20 to 30 cents per gallon within weeks. OPEC+ moved to calm markets by raising output 220K barrels per day, though analysts say that will only marginally mute upside pressure amid rising geopolitical risk.