New Research Reveals Americans Bear 96% of Trump’s Tariff Tab

The tariff war’s biggest punch didn’t land on trade flows — it landed on prices at home. New research from Germany’s Kiel Institute reveals that Americans absorbed 96% of US tariff costs, while foreign exporters ate just 4%. The findings challenge the argument that tariffs are primarily paid by overseas producers as trade tensions heat up.

• Indian exporters largely held prices steady but cut US shipment volumes 18%–24% versus the EU, Canada, and Australia after higher levies.
• The tariffs raised about $200B in extra US revenue last year — paid mostly by Americans, not foreign exporters.

Economic hangover: Tariff costs tend to show up in inflation over time. Harvard Business School research found that only ~20% hit consumer prices within six months, with importers and retailers absorbing most of the early impact. As Germany’s Bielefeld University’s Julian Hinz put it, “There is no such thing as foreigners transferring wealth to the US in the form of tariffs.” The burden could shift if firms diversify suppliers and exporters cut prices harder, but for now, tariffs are acting like a domestic consumption tax dressed up as trade policy.