Job Hopping Premium Shrinks to 6.4% as Employers Regain Power

The golden age of job hopping is fading — and paychecks are showing it. Job switchers now get 6.4% raises vs. 4.5% for those staying put — the narrowest gap since 2020 and a far cry from Apr. 2022, when switchers grabbed 16% bumps during the Great Resignation. Leverage has swung back to employers in this “low hire, low fire” market, leaving extra workers to fight for the same wages.

• Stayers still saw solid raises — Atlanta Fed data shows an even tighter squeeze: switchers at 4% vs. 3.5% for stayers.
• The economic mood has turned grim, with credit card debt hitting a record $1.28T, and nearly three-fifths of Americans thinking the US is already in recession.

The labor disconnect: This hiring slowdown clashes with a “boomcession” where GDP grows, but workers miss out. Labor’s share of output sits at record lows as profits pull further ahead of pay, despite peak productivity. Layoffs roll on anyway, feeding concerns that AI is replacing jobs faster than new ones emerge. For switchers, pay upside now tracks the market.