IRS Withholding Error Could Mean Record Tax Refunds For Millions In 2026

Looks like Uncle Sam might be cutting some surprisingly generous “oops, we overcharged you” checks next spring. Thanks to retroactive tax cuts from Trump’s July legislation, millions of Americans have been overpaying taxes all year — because the IRS hasn’t updated paycheck withholding tables. That means refund season could break records, with $91B in tax relief expected between Feb. and Apr. 2026.

• The lag in IRS updates turned Trump’s midyear tax cuts into a delayed payday, setting up one of the largest collective refunds in recent history.
• Piper Sandler expects $59B in refunds and $32B in reduced balances, with wealthier taxpayers likely to stash the cash while many families use it to cover rent, groceries, and credit cards.

Deferred relief: Not everyone will see a major boost in refunds, as many of the new breaks apply only to certain income types like overtime and tips, and come with income limits. The expanded state and local tax deduction also benefits only those who itemize. For most filers, the law simply extends the 2017 tax cuts, keeping the same structure in place for eight years. The average refund through mid-October stood at $3.05K for 2025, but Oxford Economics warns the withholding mismatch means taxpayers are essentially giving the government interest-free loans until their money returns next spring.